An October voter survey released by Emerson College shows Cruz leading Allred 48 percent to 47 percent. Meanwhile, Trump has a comfortable lead over Vice President Kamala Harris, with 53 percent to her 46 percent. While the five-point gap between Trump and Cruz is concerning, even more alarming is the survey suggesting independent voters are breaking for Allred 47 percent to 42 percent. Conversely, those same independents break for Trump with 49 percent to Harris’s 47 percent.
CRUZ’S JEFF ROE PROBLEM.
Complicating matters in Texas is Cruz’s symbiotic relationship with Republican political consultant Jeff Roe. Without Roe, Cruz likely would not have won his initial Senate run in 2012, and without Cruz, Roe likely would still be a relatively unknown entity in campaign consulting outside his home state of Missouri.
While Roe‘s national profile took a severe hit during the 2024 Republican presidential primary—as the consultant spearheading Governor Ron DeSantis’s (R-FL) disastrous campaign—he retains relevance because of Cruz. However, there are some in both Trump-world and the Republican Party at large who may not mind seeing Sen. Cruz lose his seat if it means being rid of Roe once and for all. During the 2024 primary, Roe was often taunted by Trump campaign advisor Chris LaCivita on X (formerly Twitter), with the latter slamming Roe’s management of the pro-DeSantis Never Back Down SuperPAC.
After DeSantis dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump’s 2024 bid to retake the White House, LaCivita and Trump advisor Susie Wiles pushed lawmakers on Capitol Hill, including House Speaker Mike Johnson, to drop Roe as a consultant. Johnson, for his part, complied—cutting ties with Roe this past February.
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