Frank Luntz, a smart pollster who fell out of favor with the right for refusing to get on board with Donald Trump, just handed Republicans a glimmer of hope for the midterms. And that hope comes from the very man Luntz spent years criticizing.

Luntz's standing with conservatives took a serious hit starting in 2016. As Trump took over the Republican Party, Luntz grew more and more critical of his rhetoric and put real distance between himself and the GOP. A big chunk of the conservative movement tuned him out, and his skepticism toward Trump fueled most of that backlash.

So when Luntz says Trump could carry Republicans to victory in November, it's worth listening.

His polling shows a rough cycle for both parties, but the details favor the GOP. Trump and Republicans aren't polling well, yet Democrats are doing even worse, and they've dug themselves deeper into their media bubbles. Even the turnout advantage Democrats are banking on turns out to be pretty thin.

"I'm looking at a turnout differential that advantages the Democrats by a couple of points, which means that there are more people who oppose Donald Trump, who are planning to vote, than those who support him," Luntz told CNN This Morning on Monday. "There's always been a historical advantage to the party out of power in the midterms, particularly in the first midterms."

A couple of points? That's it?

The party out of power usually walks into its first midterm with the wind at its back, and Democrats can only manage a two-point edge.

Luntz also explained why that edge is so fragile.

Trump's voters show up when he's on the ballot and stay home when he isn't, which makes his absence in November a bigger problem for Republicans than his approval ratings.

"When he is on the ballot, his people come out. They participate," he said. "They did in the on-year elections, 2016 and 2024. And they did not, in 2018. And they did not as much, even when Joe Biden was the president in 2020, for the 2022 election."

The fix is obvious, and Trump is already working on it. Luntz said the whole map hinges on whether the president can get those voters engaged again, starting with the biggest prize.

"But he needs his people to vote in a place like Texas," Luntz continued. "If the Trump voters participate, the Republican nominee in Texas is elected. If the Trump voters don't participate, the Democrats will achieve an upset. It's the same thing in states as small as Iowa, Alaska. It even matters in a state like Ohio."

When CNN's Audie Cornish pressed him on whether that coalition still holds together, Luntz ticked off the groups he's watching. He admitted Trump's Latino numbers have slipped, but said the president "saw the difference" those voters made for him and for down-ballot Republicans. He's also tracking male union voters, who shifted toward the GOP at historic levels in 2024, and voters under 30, who gave Trump more support than young voters usually give a Republican. "And this allowed him to bring over more senators, more congressmen," Luntz said.

Then came the line that should make every Democrat nervous.

"Donald Trump does have more influence on more races than any other Republican, even than Ronald Reagan," Luntz added. "I've never seen a Republican as engaged and involved as this guy. And it matters."

More influence than Reagan. From Frank Luntz, of all people.

Luntz did warn that voters are frustrated with the war, affordability, and Trump's style, and he had a message for the pollster-bashers in Trump's orbit: "The votes are the votes. The results are the results." But he made it clear that the path to victory runs straight through Trump.

"But if he turns out his people, who still like him, still believe in the Trump message and the Trump agenda, we can have an upset," he said.

Democrats have spent months treating a midterm wave as a sure thing. They won't be happy to hear that a pollster who has never been a Trump cheerleader has them polling worse than the GOP, clinging to a turnout lead of just two points, and facing the most engaged Republican he's ever seen.