Why I Don’t Think Republicans Are Going to Lose the Senate

Republicans will outperform their polling again, but probably not by the same margins, because the gap narrows in a second-term midterm.

NN’s data analyst Harry Enten said something interesting last week. He said Republicans have a stubborn habit of outperforming their September polling in the states that decide control of the Senate. He is right, and reiterated a point I have been making for some time that leads me to believe all might not be lost for the GOP in the Senate.

In the major 2024 races, Republicans outran their September polls by 9 points in Iowa, by 6 in Ohio, and by 5 in Michigan. A skeptic will say that was 2024, with President Donald Trump on the ballot. As Harry noted, go back to 2018, the first midterm of Trump’s first term, and you get the same pattern. Republicans beat their September polls by 6 in Iowa, 6 in Ohio, and 8 in Michigan. Across 2016, 2018, 2020 and 2024, Republicans outperformed their September polling by at least 5 points in every one of those states. The Democratic leads in those same races right now sit under that margin.

The reason is not magic, and it is not fraud. It is who answers the phone. There’s an old joke that a CrossFitter, an atheist and a vegan walked into a bar. We know because they made sure everyone knew. Political progressives these days are very much the same way. They want everyone to know they hate the president, they hate the GOP and they are going to vote. Most Trump voters just go to work, go to church, and vote.

Pollsters have struggled to get Republican polling participation. Patrick Ruffini’s review of the 538 archive shows polling historically overstating Democrats by 6.2 points in Michigan and 6.4 points in Ohio. Florida’s September polling misses by about 5 points. In Georgia and Texas, the miss is under 1 point.

Republicans will outperform their polling again, but probably not by the same margins, because the gap narrows in a second-term midterm. That leaves enough of a cushion for Susan Collins in Maine, who rarely leads a poll and always wins. It is enough for Mike Rogers in Michigan, Ashley Hinson in Iowa, Dan Sullivan in Alaska, Roger Marshall in Kansas and Darlene Graham in South Carolina. It is not enough for Michael Whatley in North Carolina, and it is not enough for Mike Collins in Georgia unless gubernatorial candidate Rick Jackson pulls him across the finish line. Ohio is a coin flip. Sherrod Brown leads Jon Husted by less than the historical 6-point margin.

Unfortunately, Texas is a problem Republicans made for themselves. The data shows Ken Paxton is the least popular Republican Senate nominee in any state, and Texas independents cannot stand him. The people who insisted the party line up behind Paxton bought the idea that swing voters no longer exist and elections are won by turning out the base. Pat Dennis, who runs the Democratic group American Bridge, called that conventional wisdom wrong in a way that led both parties into terrible strategic decisions. Dennis is right. If the country is split 50-50 and only 3% of voters are persuadable, those 3% decide every election. Republicans cannot win Texas alone. I still think Paxton pulls it out, but I will not be surprised either way.

The House is a different story. The generic ballot average has Democrats up roughly 8 points, or about 6 points adjusted for polling bias. Democrats need a margin of 4 points to take the House, so they probably will, by 15 to 20 seats. Hakeem Jeffries will likely be speaker. To take the Senate, however, they need to be 9 or 10 points up, and they are not there even before you adjust the polls.

I have Republican friends convinced we are losing Mississippi, South Carolina and Texas. I remember when they were sure we would lose Texas with Ted Cruz and South Carolina with Lindsey Graham six years ago. Republicans should be alarmed about the House and honest about their own mistakes in Texas, North Carolina and Georgia. Right now, however, I do not think Democrats should be measuring the drapes in the Senate.

https://patriotpost.us/opinion/1001785-why-i-dont-think-republicans-are-going-to-lose-the-senate

Illegal Alien Jailed, Allegedly Got Nude and Exposed Himself While Campaigning for Democrat

A Nigerian illegal alien has been arrested after being accused of fully exposing his genitals while working as a canvasser for a Pennsylvania congressional candidate.

The illegal alien, Chimaobim Adedayo Igbojekwe, was arrested Sept. 27 in East Pennsboro Township after he removed his pants, “fully exposing himself, in a residential neighborhood near a park with residents, including children,” according to a Department of Homeland Security news statement.

Citing “local reporting,” DHS confirmed that Igbojekwe had been working as a canvasser for Janelle Stelson, a Democratic candidate for a Pennsylvania House seat, when the stunning incident occurred.

Igbojekwe was arrested on charges of indecent exposure and disorderly conduct.

The Trump administration was quick to blame the incident on Stelson.

“It’s unbelievable that Janelle Stelson would employ an illegal alien to work on a Congressional campaign, let alone a pervert who exposed himself in public,” U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement Deputy Director Charles Wall said in a statement.

“Every single day, the men and women of DHS are working hard to target and remove dangerous illegal aliens like this sicko from our communities,” he added. “The Trump Administration will always put the safety of the American people first.”

Despite the evidence, Stelson has since denied that Igbojekwe worked for her.

“This individual is not and has never been employed by the Janelle Stelson campaign,” her campaign manager told The Patriot-News. “If he is an illegal immigrant who committed a crime, he should be deported.”

“We never heard of him prior to the news of his arrest,” the campaign manager added. “We are grateful to law enforcement for acting swiftly to arrest him.”

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But according to GOP activist Scott Pressler, Stelson’s campaign flyers were found in Igbojekwe’s vehicle:

Pressler also reported that Igbojekwe has a Colorado address.

“Why is Janelle Stelson hiring canvassers that live in Aurora, Colorado?” he asked in a post published to the social media site X.

The House Majority PAC, a Democratic Super PAC founded in 2011, has also alleged that “Janelle Stelson’s campaign did not employ [Igbojekwe], has no affiliation with him, and had never heard of him before his arrest.”

“His name, Chimaobim Adedayo Igbojekwe, does not appear in any of Stelson’s FEC filings,” the PAC added.

However, the National Republican National Committee isn’t buying it.

“Radical lunatic Janelle Stelson oversees her own failing campaign the way she’d like to see the border enforced: zero standards, no accountability, and a welcome mat for illegal creeps,” National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson Reilly Richardson told the Washington Examiner.

“Stelson wants to flood Pennsylvania communities with criminal illegal immigrants because that’s who’s propping up her campaign,” he added.

The Trump administration has also blamed the Biden administration.

“Igbojekwe was lawfully admitted to the United States in June 2017,” DHS reported in its news statement. “After his authorized period expired in November 2019, he illegally remained in the United States. He was granted deferred action by the Biden Administration in September 2021.”

https://www.westernjournal.com/illegal-alien-jailed-allegedly-got-nude-exposed-campaigning-democrat/

Nobel Committee Awards Peace Prize to Israel-Hating South African (Because, of Course, They Did)

Most international organizations have fallen into disgrace over the past decade, but perhaps none are more obsessed with proving to the world that they are a joke than Norway's once-respected Nobel Peace Prize Committee. 

The prize has been a laughingstock since the committee gave it to Yasser Arafat in 1994. Last year, in a desperate urge to hand the award to "anyone but Trump," the committee bestowed the now-dubious honor on Maria Corina Machado, only to have the Venezuelan opposition leader throw egg in their faces by gifting her award to the American President. 

Clearly, the folks at Nobel learned that they have to work harder to find someone who hates Trump as much as they do. To that end, they found someone who also hates everything about the West — but particularly those pesky Jews. 

Navi Pillay supports "peace and international law"? 

Well, OK. That seems pretty vague, though, for someone who is about to be handed a medal and 12 million Swedish kroner (about $1.2 million, USD). 

What aren't they telling everyone? Reuters had a partial answer. 

Aaaaaand, there it is! 

Of course, Nobel would celebrate this woman who promoted the "genocide" lie about Israel defending itself against terrorists who want to exterminate them. The only surprise is that they didn't give the award to Mark Ruffalo or Macklemore. 

Unfortunately, there's much more to Pillay that Reuters also refused to share. Thankfully, the Israeli Foreign Ministry knows all about who she really is. 

... isn’t a recognition of justice. It’s the grotesque weaponization of an award to legitimize anti-Israel hatred and prejudice. 

Now that the Nobel commission has rewarded the biggest lie of the 21st century, Joseph Goebbels is certainly applauding from hell.

And unlike those quasi-celebrities in Hollywood and the music world we mentioned above, Pillay isn't new to lying and spreading blood libel about Jews. She's been doing that for YEARS. 

In a very long post, human rights attorney Hillel Neuer listed many of the lies she has spread and weaponized. 

... reject antisemitism unequivocally. Honoring Pillay without confronting this record undermines those principles and risks rewarding prejudice rather than advancing peace. 

In July 2021, Ms. Pillay accepted to chair a Pakistani-sponsored UN Commission of Inquiry into alleged Israeli crimes. The rules of due process require that fact-finders in the human rights field be impartial. Yet prior to accepting this post, Pillay had publicly pronounced herself, in extreme terms, on the very issues that her inquiry is mandated to investigate.  

In June 2020, she signed a manifesto calling on governments to “Sanction Apartheid Israel.” In June 2021, a month before heading the inquiry, Pillay wrote a letter to President Biden calling to punish Israel for the May 2021 war with Hamas. She has made many more prior prejudicial pronouncements. (See: https://unwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Request-for-Navi-Pillay-to-Recuse-Herself-on-Grounds-of-Bias.pdf) 

This not all. In July 2022, Pillay’s fellow commissioner Miloon Kothari railed against “the Jewish Lobby” and questioned Israel’s right to be a member state of the UN. Mr. Kothari was condemned by the world’s leading democracies, and by top UN officials including Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. Astonishingly, however, Navi Pillay defended him.

For those reasons, the Mayor of Berlin in 2022 withdrew her support for a town hall event set to honor Navi Pillay, and the award was canceled. 

By honoring Pillay, the Nobel committee has failed to uphold the principles it seeks to celebrate. International justice depends on impartiality. When an investigator campaigns to punish a country before examining the evidence, she compromises the credibility of both her findings and the institution she represents. 

Pillay’s defense of a colleague who invoked “the Jewish lobby” is especially disturbing. A human rights leader should recognize and unequivocally reject antisemitic stereotypes. Her response instead helped shield her colleague from accountability. The Nobel committee should have confronted that record before presenting her as a model of integrity. 

The victims of discrimination deserve institutions that apply the same standards to everyone.

Today’s decision sends the wrong message: that achievements elsewhere excuse prejudice against Jews and the abandonment of basic standards of fairness when investigating Israel. That weakens the cause of universal human rights.

The Nobel Committee isn't sending the wrong message, not by their standards. They are sending the exact message that they want to: If you hate the Jews, you're our girl!

Ironically, but unsurprisingly, Pillay herself may be complicit in genocide in China, according to a U.N. whistleblower ... who actually worked for her. 

Hey, who cares about those Uyghurs and Chinese dissidents anyway? After all, Barack Obama accepted his Nobel Peace Prize just before he began a massive drone campaign that targeted weddings, women, and children. 

Of course, Pillay is silent about all of that. Or when she does speak about pogroms against Jews, she uses the Zohran Mamdani trick of, "Yes, October 7 was bad, BUT ..."

A trash person won a trash award. News at 11. 

We already knew that about them; we have known since 1994, but they insist on reminding us virtually every year. 

It's not shocking, though. It is entirely on brand. 

They don't care. Nor do any leftists in America, who only care about how the award might feed their TDS. 

See what we mean? 

Sisson doesn't care about Pillay's atrocious record. He only wants to embarrass the Bad Orange Man who occupies his two brain cells, 24/7. 

No, we're pretty sure President Trump is not "losing his mind" about the Nobel Prize. He's not even losing a second of sleep over it. 

We're tempted to say, however, that the Nobel Committee has lost all respect they used to have. 

The only problem is that already happened more than 30 years ago. 

https://twitchy.com/grateful-calvin/2026/10/09/nobel-committee-awards-peace-prize-to-israel-hating-south-african-because-of-course-they-did-n2433135

Nick Shirley Does It Again: A $120 Can of Spam Busts Open Seattle's Food Stamp Fraud

Look in the mirror: You're looking at an attractive, smart, hardworking taxpayer. 

And here's where hundreds of millions of your food stamp tax dollars are going: straight into the hands of addicts, the pockets of pimps, and the funds of charlatans. 

It wasn't bad enough that California hospice owners were driving Ferraris bought with stolen tax money, and that FireAID donations were given to nonprofits that had nothing to do with actual, you know, fire aid. Now we discover that food stamp fraud is taking place in the open on the streets of America, and nobody's doing anything about it, apparently.

Independent reporter Nick Shirley, with a group of other indy reporters, revealed the open-air federal food stamp fraud taking place on the streets of Seattle. 

Shirley, San Francisco-based street reporter Darren Stallcup, Seattle's Jonathan Choe, and other intrepid indy reporters followed the money. 

Choe tells Shirley that EBT cards litter homeless encampments, where they receive so many of them that they begin to throw them away. Many of those "homeless" drug zombies use their food stamp cards to buy drugs. 

Choe and Shirley found EBT cards and sought to follow the lucrative scam from beginning to end. Shirley lays out how simple this is in a new video displaying how one abandoned EBT card can buy drugs, sex, and a $120 can of Spam.

Here's how food stamp fraud works:- 

Gov funds EBT cards with $- Fraudster offers to buy the card for cash- 

Local business partners with the fraudster to adjust food price to the EBT card's balance- 

Everyone gets paid with your tax dollars

Watch a woman who's some kind of street broker drive Shirley and another reporter to a second location, a Seattle seafood store nearby, to turn the EBT card into a pot of gold.

Shirley tells her, "You've committed fraud." She replies, "I know." 

Watch the longer version that takes you through the interaction between the reporters and an apparently homeless guy named Devon who directs them to a place in downtown Seattle where they can turn the card in for cash. For interested law enforcement, Devon says the name of the place at minute 5:18.

On their way to the EBT money laundering place, they come across a Vietnamese lady who appears to be working with others. One woman seems to be calling a number on the back of an EBT card to perhaps find out the balance on the card. 

The woman who knows she's committing fraud asks one of the reporters how much is on their card. Shirley replies $120. She offers $60 and then tells them to hop in her car so she can launder it at the seafood market. 

"And magically, just like that, one can of spam and thing of sushi was $120," Shirley declares. 

Like James O'Keefe did when he was offered the ballot of sitting Attorney General Eric Holder during the Obama administration in an election integrity sting, Shirley didn't take it. That would have been fraud. He laughably told the precinct worker that he'd go get his ID. He was assured he didn't need it. He persisted and told the worker on the way out that he'd be right back, "Faster than you can say furious." 

For his part, Shirley pretended to try and enter a PIN into the machine and it didn't work. He returned to the seafood market a while later to ask them questions, but word had been leaked that he was around, and "suddenly no one can speak English."

You may already have been aware of this scam. But now, thanks to Shirley and Co., millions more smart, hardworking, good-looking Americans will be aware of it, too. 

https://pjmedia.com/victoria-taft/2026/10/09/nick-shirley-does-it-again-a-120-can-of-spam-and-seattles-food-stamp-fraud-n4958149

Katie Zacharia Offered White House Press Secretary Position

Katie Zacharia, a former spokeswoman at the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and a senior communications adviser at Truth Social, has been offered the position of White House press secretary.

Multiple sources familiar with the matter confirmed to Breitbart News that an offer for the position has been extended to Zacharia.

According to her LinkedIn profile, Zacharia has worked as a senior communications adviser at Truth Social and Trump Media & Technology Group since June. Before that, she served as deputy assistant secretary to public affairs and as a spokeswoman at DHS in February and March of this year.

She was a Fox News and Newsmax commentator and currently works as general counsel for Fix California and is a Dean’s Council board member at Pepperdine Caruso Law, per her LinkedIn page.

Zacharia would replace former White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt, who served in the role from January 2025 through August of this year. Leavitt left the position to spend more time with her young children and has since become a Fox News contributor.

President Donald Trump has not yet publicly weighed in on the offer, but that could change with a Truth Social post or in his next interaction with reporters.

Zacharia taking the role would end nearly two months of media speculation about who would succeed Leavitt. Names like Scott Jennings of CNN and White House deputy press secretary Anna Kelly were frequently thrown around as potential successors.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2026/10/09/katie-zacahria-offered-white-house-press-secretary-position/

DEVELOPING: Powerful Magnitude 8.0 Earthquake Strikes Panama – Tsunami Alert Issued for 8 Countries

 A powerful preliminary magnitude 8.0 earthquake struck Panama on Friday.

Tsunami warning was issued for 8 countries: Ecuador, Colombia, Nicaragua, Panama, Guatemala, Peru, El Salvador and Costa Rica.

The USGS later downgraded the earthquake to a magnitude 7.7.

There no immediate reports of injuries. Some buildings have been damaged.

ABC News reported:

A strong 7.7 magnitude earthquake rattled Panama on Friday, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

The U.S. Tsunami Warning System has issued potential tsunami threats in the region, saying “hazardous tsunami waves” are possible in the next few hours along some coasts in Costa Rica, El Salvador, Peru, Mexico, Guatemala, Panama, Nicaragua, Colombia and Ecuador.

The earthquake struck southern Panama on the Pacific side of the country, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. The epicenter was 12 km west-southwest of Pitaloza Arriba, Panama.

Over a dozen aftershocks have been recorded since the earthquake occurred shortly before 1 p.m. local time, according to the Panama president’s office.

Videos posted to social media shows the moment the quake struck:

WATCH:

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2026/10/powerful-magnitude-8-earthquake-strikes-panama-tsunami-warning/