Kevin goes to the circus and is shocked to see his old friend, Heath, shoveling elephant dung. He approaches him and asks, “What happened to you? Last I heard, maybe 12 years ago, you were in London, studying at the Royal Academy of Dramatic Art.” Heath says, “Yeah, I finished that program and got bit parts in a few Shakespearean productions. After a while, though, the money ran out, and I headed back to the U.S., took out a big student loan and did additional studies at Juilliard. I got a couple of small movie roles, but then the callbacks stopped, so I headed to L.A. to work in TV. I did some local ads for a pizzeria and a lawyer, but both said their profits dropped after the ads ran. So, I moved back to my parents’ place and did dinner theater—for a little while. One day, at the unemployment office, I saw that the circus was passing through town and hiring. I submitted an application, and, … well, … here I am.” Kevin says, “My God, Heath, you’re 35 years old. Why don’t you find another career while you still have time?” Heath rears up and shouts, “WHAAAT???!! And leave SHOW BUSINESS???!!”
A year or so ago, a friend wrote to ask advice, saying that her son, a 16-year old rising high school senior, was “obsessed with being an economist” and whose dream was to work for the Bank of England. In response, I sent a bullet-list of grumpy warnings whose overriding message was that such a goal is fine, as long as he treats it as merely one possibility on a sizable list of wildly divergent career paths. This echoed advice I’ve offered for decades to young proteges. (See my earlier essays, “Overcoming College: Getting a Job In Spite of Your Education” and “20 Job Tips for 2020s 20-Somethings: Plus, with sheep comes optimism.”)
I have a PhD in economics from Columbia University and have enjoyed a long and interesting career. For over 25 years, one part of that career has been teaching and mentoring grad students working on their PhDs. So, why did I offer my friend caveats regarding her son’s deeply admirable, highly focused ambition?
Well, to reiterate, I never said he SHOULDN’T aim for a career as an economist at the Bank of England. It’s wonderful that a kid so young has such mature aspirations. My advice was simply that he not focus EXCLUSIVELY (perhaps not even primarily) on that one hyper-specific dream.
I offered caution because I’ve been warning young protégés for decades about the risks inherent in the process of acquiring a PhD and the challenges of navigating a PhD-dependent career. No matter how smart and diligent the student, there’s a high likelihood that his or her quest for a PhD will be thwarted by circumstances beyond his or her control. And, with the advent of artificial intelligence (AI), government budget cuts, inflows of highly-educated immigrants, and universities that are intellectually and morally suspect, the risks are greater than ever.
Over the years, the provocative, somewhat-but-not-entirely tongue-in-cheek morsel of advice I’ve given bright young high school and college students has been: “By all means, consider that PhD in economics, but make sure you’re also qualified for a career in heating, ventilation, and air conditioning repair (HVAC).” In this case, “HVAC” is just an exemplar for a broad array of skilled trades.
WHY SO GRUMPY?
What is it about PhDs and PhD-dependent professions that gives me the jitters? Well, since you ask:
No matter how smart and diligent, it’s fairly likely that a PhD student will never receive his or her degree. Vast numbers of students waste long years in fruitless attempts to earn a PhD—often thwarted by lazy, disinterested, or intellectually dishonest faculty advisors and dysfunctional departments. (My own PhD was delayed around 15 years thanks to such circumstances.) Even if the student eventually receives the PhD, doing so may have required so many years and/or so many intellectual compromises as to dull his or her capacity to conduct meaningful work. I explored these problems in my 2024 essay, “Pangolins, Bats, Zionism, and Patriarchy: An Equity-Based, Gender-Nonconforming, Anti-Colonialist, Zero-Carbon Investigation into the Origins of COVID.”
Aiming for a particular job at a particular place is a risky strategy—like drawing to an inside straight in poker. It’s wonderful that my friend’s young son is so eager to carefully craft his future. However, competition for PhD-dependent jobs is fierce. Institutions that hire PhDs have limited numbers of open slots each year, while universities extrude tons of freshly-minted PhDs each year. As a result, PhD professions are a bit like basketball—you either end up in the NBA or on the schoolyard shooting hoops after work.
In coming years, several factors may reduce even further the number of available slots for young PhDs. Many governments are strapped for cash, and PhD-dependent fields can be tempting targets for cuts. AI will likely automate many tasks previously done by humans with PhDs. Universities have become ultra-ideological, and some employers are recoiling from the intellectual vacuity that sometimes passes for research. Westerners may find it difficult to compete with PhDs from developing nations, not because the latter are benefiting from preferential (i.e., DEI-based) hiring, but rather because the immigrants’ desire to escape impoverished lands makes them ferociously competitive.
EGGS IN MULTIPLE BASKETS
I started to compile a list of careers that a kid like my friend’s son might consider—the diversified portfolio of ambitions that I alluded to earlier. Instead, I decided to show how several hours of work by a PhD (like me) can be replaced by a few seconds with an AI app—a small metaphor for the challenges new PhDs will face. I asked ChatGPT to compile the list, and it instantly rolled out an excellent list of ten possible career paths, along with the pros and cons of each. My query was:
“Imagine a bright 16-year-old who would like to become a PhD economist and work in central banking. However, he is aware that that seeking a PhD is a risky endeavor, that economist positions are highly competitive, that AI and budget cuts may limit growth in the field. He wants to consider alternative career paths that might be safer bets for remunerative work over the next forty years. Give me a list of, say, 10 career paths he might consider as alternatives. Some might require college and postgraduate work. Some may not.”
And here, lightly edited, are ChatGPT’s ten suggested pathways for a young person fitting the profile of my friend’s 16-year-old son—along with qualities of each:
1) Data Science / Applied Statistics:
Why it’s strong: Every industry runs on data; demand remains broad and portable.
Path: Bachelor’s (math, stats, CS, econ) → optional master’s.
Overlap with econ: Very high (econometrics → machine learning).
Risk level: Moderate (AI changes tools, but increases demand for people who can interpret results).
2) Software Engineering / AI Engineering
Why: Still one of the highest-paying, most flexible careers globally.
Path: Computer Science degree or even self-taught + portfolio.
Twist: Combine with economics → financial tech, macro modeling, trading systems.
Risk: Some commoditization, but top talent remains scarce.
3) Quantitative Finance (Quant, Risk, Trading)
Why: Among the highest compensation ceilings.
Path: Math/physics/CS/econ → often master’s (not always PhD).
Fit: Closest private-sector analogue to central banking.
Risk: Competitive, but strong demand for top-tier quantitative skills.
4) Actuarial Science
Why: Stable, high-paying, credential-based profession.
Path: Bachelor’s + professional exams from the Society of Actuaries (SOA) and the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS).
Advantage: Clear, structured progression; less “winner-take-all” than academia.
Risk: Low (slow automation due to regulatory complexity).
5) Management Consulting
Why: Exposure to many industries; strong pay early on.
A year or so ago, a friend wrote to ask advice, saying that her son, a 16-year old rising high school senior, was “obsessed with being an economist” and whose dream was to work for the Bank of England. In response, I sent a bullet-list of grumpy warnings whose overriding message was that such a goal is fine, as long as he treats it as merely one possibility on a sizable list of wildly divergent career paths. This echoed advice I’ve offered for decades to young proteges. (See my earlier essays, “Overcoming College: Getting a Job In Spite of Your Education” and “20 Job Tips for 2020s 20-Somethings: Plus, with sheep comes optimism.”)
I have a PhD in economics from Columbia University and have enjoyed a long and interesting career. For over 25 years, one part of that career has been teaching and mentoring grad students working on their PhDs. So, why did I offer my friend caveats regarding her son’s deeply admirable, highly focused ambition?
Well, to reiterate, I never said he SHOULDN’T aim for a career as an economist at the Bank of England. It’s wonderful that a kid so young has such mature aspirations. My advice was simply that he not focus EXCLUSIVELY (perhaps not even primarily) on that one hyper-specific dream.
I offered caution because I’ve been warning young protégés for decades about the risks inherent in the process of acquiring a PhD and the challenges of navigating a PhD-dependent career. No matter how smart and diligent the student, there’s a high likelihood that his or her quest for a PhD will be thwarted by circumstances beyond his or her control. And, with the advent of artificial intelligence (AI), government budget cuts, inflows of highly-educated immigrants, and universities that are intellectually and morally suspect, the risks are greater than ever.
Over the years, the provocative, somewhat-but-not-entirely tongue-in-cheek morsel of advice I’ve given bright young high school and college students has been: “By all means, consider that PhD in economics, but make sure you’re also qualified for a career in heating, ventilation, and air conditioning repair (HVAC).” In this case, “HVAC” is just an exemplar for a broad array of skilled trades.
WHY SO GRUMPY?
What is it about PhDs and PhD-dependent professions that gives me the jitters? Well, since you ask:
No matter how smart and diligent, it’s fairly likely that a PhD student will never receive his or her degree. Vast numbers of students waste long years in fruitless attempts to earn a PhD—often thwarted by lazy, disinterested, or intellectually dishonest faculty advisors and dysfunctional departments. (My own PhD was delayed around 15 years thanks to such circumstances.) Even if the student eventually receives the PhD, doing so may have required so many years and/or so many intellectual compromises as to dull his or her capacity to conduct meaningful work. I explored these problems in my 2024 essay, “Pangolins, Bats, Zionism, and Patriarchy: An Equity-Based, Gender-Nonconforming, Anti-Colonialist, Zero-Carbon Investigation into the Origins of COVID.”
Aiming for a particular job at a particular place is a risky strategy—like drawing to an inside straight in poker. It’s wonderful that my friend’s young son is so eager to carefully craft his future. However, competition for PhD-dependent jobs is fierce. Institutions that hire PhDs have limited numbers of open slots each year, while universities extrude tons of freshly-minted PhDs each year. As a result, PhD professions are a bit like basketball—you either end up in the NBA or on the schoolyard shooting hoops after work.
In coming years, several factors may reduce even further the number of available slots for young PhDs. Many governments are strapped for cash, and PhD-dependent fields can be tempting targets for cuts. AI will likely automate many tasks previously done by humans with PhDs. Universities have become ultra-ideological, and some employers are recoiling from the intellectual vacuity that sometimes passes for research. Westerners may find it difficult to compete with PhDs from developing nations, not because the latter are benefiting from preferential (i.e., DEI-based) hiring, but rather because the immigrants’ desire to escape impoverished lands makes them ferociously competitive.
EGGS IN MULTIPLE BASKETS
I started to compile a list of careers that a kid like my friend’s son might consider—the diversified portfolio of ambitions that I alluded to earlier. Instead, I decided to show how several hours of work by a PhD (like me) can be replaced by a few seconds with an AI app—a small metaphor for the challenges new PhDs will face. I asked ChatGPT to compile the list, and it instantly rolled out an excellent list of ten possible career paths, along with the pros and cons of each. My query was:
“Imagine a bright 16-year-old who would like to become a PhD economist and work in central banking. However, he is aware that that seeking a PhD is a risky endeavor, that economist positions are highly competitive, that AI and budget cuts may limit growth in the field. He wants to consider alternative career paths that might be safer bets for remunerative work over the next forty years. Give me a list of, say, 10 career paths he might consider as alternatives. Some might require college and postgraduate work. Some may not.”
And here, lightly edited, are ChatGPT’s ten suggested pathways for a young person fitting the profile of my friend’s 16-year-old son—along with qualities of each:
1) Data Science / Applied Statistics:
Why it’s strong: Every industry runs on data; demand remains broad and portable.
Path: Bachelor’s (math, stats, CS, econ) → optional master’s.
Overlap with econ: Very high (econometrics → machine learning).
Risk level: Moderate (AI changes tools, but increases demand for people who can interpret results).
2) Software Engineering / AI Engineering
Why: Still one of the highest-paying, most flexible careers globally.
Path: Computer Science degree or even self-taught + portfolio.
Twist: Combine with economics → financial tech, macro modeling, trading systems.
Risk: Some commoditization, but top talent remains scarce.
3) Quantitative Finance (Quant, Risk, Trading)
Why: Among the highest compensation ceilings.
Path: Math/physics/CS/econ → often master’s (not always PhD).
Fit: Closest private-sector analogue to central banking.
Risk: Competitive, but strong demand for top-tier quantitative skills.
4) Actuarial Science
Why: Stable, high-paying, credential-based profession.
Path: Bachelor’s + professional exams from the Society of Actuaries (SOA) and the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS).
Advantage: Clear, structured progression; less “winner-take-all” than academia.
Risk: Low (slow automation due to regulatory complexity).
5) Management Consulting
Why: Exposure to many industries; strong pay early on.
Path: Top undergraduate degree; MBA optional.
Fit: Uses economic reasoning without needing a PhD.
Risk: Hours can be intense; somewhat cyclical with economy.
6) Corporate Finance / Investment Banking
Why: High earnings, especially early career.
Path: Finance/economics degree → analyst roles → optional MBA.
Fit: Macro awareness + markets exposure.
Risk: Cyclical and demanding lifestyle.
7) Skilled Trades (Electrician, HVAC, Plumbing)
Why: Chronic shortages; strong income without college debt.
Path: Apprenticeship + licensing.
Upside: Entrepreneurship (owning a business).
Risk: Physical demands; but very resistant to automation.
8) Healthcare Professions (Physician, PA, Nurse Practitioner)
Why: Long-term demand is extremely strong.
Path: Ranges from nursing → MD (longer path).
Upside: Stability + high pay (especially medical doctor and physician assistant).
Risk: Long training; regulatory and burnout concerns.
9) Public Policy / Government Analyst (without PhD)
Why: Similar intellectual content to economics PhD roles, but lower barrier.
Path: Bachelor’s or master’s (MPP/MPA).
Employers: Congressional Budget Office, Government Accountability Office, think tanks.
Risk: Lower pay ceiling than private sector, but stable.
10) Entrepreneurship / Small Business Ownership
Why: Potentially the highest upside and autonomy.
Path: No fixed path; can start alongside any other career.
Fit: Economic thinking is extremely useful here.
Risk: High variance—success depends on execution and timing.
I was especially amused that ChatGPT echoed my old chestnut about HVAC technicians. (Maybe this was a coincidence, or maybe ChatGPT picked up the fact that I have long used that career as an example.) After offering these ten career paths, ChatGPT offered a few more suggestions, which I’ve edited lightly:
Instead of “pick one forever,” a smart strategy is:
Build quantitative + communication skills (these transfer across nearly all paths).
Take college courses that leave multiple options open (e.g., math + CS + econ mix).
Favor paths with multiple exit options (data science, software, finance).
Major in math/CS/econ → start in data science or software → optionally pivot to finance, policy, or even a PhD later. That way, the PhD becomes an option, not a gamble you must commit to at 18.
I wish my friend’s son much success. I suspect the Bank of England would be lucky to get him.
MAMMAS DON’T LET YOUR BABIES GROW UP TO BE COWBOYS
The Highwaymen: Willie Nelson, Johnny Cash, Waylon Jennings, Kris Kristofferson. Doesn’t get better than this bunch. Their lyrics do advise the babies to become “doctors and lawyers and such,” but I’d still suggest that those kids consider the merits of HVAC repair.
Fit: Uses economic reasoning without needing a PhD.
Risk: Hours can be intense; somewhat cyclical with economy.
6) Corporate Finance / Investment Banking
Why: High earnings, especially early career.
Path: Finance/economics degree → analyst roles → optional MBA.
Fit: Macro awareness + markets exposure.
Risk: Cyclical and demanding lifestyle.
7) Skilled Trades (Electrician, HVAC, Plumbing)
Why: Chronic shortages; strong income without college debt.
Path: Apprenticeship + licensing.
Upside: Entrepreneurship (owning a business).
Risk: Physical demands; but very resistant to automation.
8) Healthcare Professions (Physician, PA, Nurse Practitioner)
Why: Long-term demand is extremely strong.
Path: Ranges from nursing → MD (longer path).
Upside: Stability + high pay (especially medical doctor and physician assistant).
Risk: Long training; regulatory and burnout concerns.
9) Public Policy / Government Analyst (without PhD)
Why: Similar intellectual content to economics PhD roles, but lower barrier.
Path: Bachelor’s or master’s (MPP/MPA).
Employers: Congressional Budget Office, Government Accountability Office, think tanks.
Risk: Lower pay ceiling than private sector, but stable.
10) Entrepreneurship / Small Business Ownership
Why: Potentially the highest upside and autonomy.
Path: No fixed path; can start alongside any other career.
Fit: Economic thinking is extremely useful here.
Risk: High variance—success depends on execution and timing.
I was especially amused that ChatGPT echoed my old chestnut about HVAC technicians. (Maybe this was a coincidence, or maybe ChatGPT picked up the fact that I have long used that career as an example.) After offering these ten career paths, ChatGPT offered a few more suggestions, which I’ve edited lightly:
Instead of “pick one forever,” a smart strategy is:
Build quantitative + communication skills (these transfer across nearly all paths).
Take college courses that leave multiple options open (e.g., math + CS + econ mix).
Favor paths with multiple exit options (data science, software, finance).
Major in math/CS/econ → start in data science or software → optionally pivot to finance, policy, or even a PhD later. That way, the PhD becomes an option, not a gamble you must commit to at 18.
I wish my friend’s son much success. I suspect the Bank of England would be lucky to get him.
MAMMAS DON’T LET YOUR BABIES GROW UP TO BE COWBOYS
The Highwaymen: Willie Nelson, Johnny Cash, Waylon Jennings, Kris Kristofferson. Doesn’t get better than this bunch. Their lyrics do advise the babies to become “doctors and lawyers and such,” but I’d still suggest that those kids consider the merits of HVAC repair.
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