'GULP' Time in Germany

You know, the German hierarchy is awfully good at waxing poetic now over things they, yeah, maybe coulda, shoulda done better years ago, or maybe not even done at all.

Like shutting down those perfectly good nuclear reactors two years ago just to show the world they could and feel like superior beings, all at the same time.

Seemed a little short-sighted and pretentious, even then, and there are those who are tacitly admitting perhaps 'mistakes were made.'

German energy minister calls nuclear phase-out 'huge mistake'

Katherina Reiche, Germany's economy and energy minister, discussed the likely impact on the country's economy if the Iran conflict continues - as well as the need for a "correction" to energy policies in Europe, at a conference in the USA.

Speaking at the CERAweek international energy event in Houston, Texas, she said that prices of petrol, diesel and jet fuels in Germany were spiking "but we don't see any scarcities in terms of volume - but if the conflict doesn't end we [will] see this probably later in April or May".

She added that the longer the crisis continues the more stress will be put on the "fragile recovery of Germany's economy". Of the country's reliance on gas, she said previous governments decided to phase out coal because of the climate targets, and "the phaseout of nuclear was a huge mistake, a huge mistake and we miss this energy", which she said had provided 20 GW of CO2-free power production at affordable prices.

European Commission President and unelected Empress of the Continent, Ursula Von der Leyen, admitted as much herself in a similar March confessional moment - not that it meant anything to the stubbornly entrenched Germans, wistful for more reliable, available, and certainly cheaper energy as they might be. For as much as German Chancellor Friedrich Merz might want to reinvigorate the country's own unalived nuclear program, he would have to avail himself of the dreaded Alternative for Germany (AfD) Party to have enough votes to bulldoze through Green Party opposition. 

He'd rather shiver in the dark before doing that. German priorities are always a little skewed, jawohl.

At a nuclear summit near Paris earlier this week, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen described the transition from nuclear energy undertaken by some EU countries as a "strategic mistake." Nuclear power, she said, is a "reliable, affordable source of low-emission electricity."  She announced new EU financial assistance for nuclear power plants.

Von der Leyen's words reverberated in Germany, which switched off its last nuclear reactor in 2023.

...On Tuesday Chancellor Friedrich Merz, himself a member of the CDU, said previous federal governments had decided to phase out nuclear energy and rolling back that decision was not possible. "I regret this," he said, "but it is the way it is, and we are now concentrating on the energy policy we have."

Though the CDU and allied Bavarian Christian Social Union support nuclear energy, Merz also knows that a rollback would need to find a majority in the Bundestag, the lower house of Germany's parliament. And and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party's votes would be needed to make up the numbers. Merz has said he would not work with the AfD.

So Germany stumbles forward, painting a brave picture of hanging in there amid the current Iran-conflict-induced fossil-fuel squeeze.

Perhaps it's just as well that the country is concurrently reducing its predicted GDP. Less industrial output is going to save energy, right?

This morning, the German National Security Council issued a comforting, 'We see no threat' press release. Of course, that was caveated by an 'as long as nothing upsets the apple cart further' but, hey. Everyone agreed it looked good for weathering the unfortunate Iranian/Hormuz situation so far even though everyone agreed, ach du liebe - was it ever expensive.

And they formed a new committee to 'monitor' the energy situation.

The German government's National Security Council currently sees no threat to Germany's energy supply. According to information obtained by the AFP news agency from participants, it was unanimously agreed at a meeting of the council on Monday evening that no energy emergency is expected in Germany in the foreseeable future. However, to continuously monitor the energy situation, the Security Council has established a new committee of state secretaries from the relevant ministries.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) announced on Sunday that the National Security Council would meet soon, given the rising energy prices resulting from the Iran war. The Federal Government's Security Council was established by the CDU/CSU-SPD coalition and held its first meeting in early November. The new body is intended to provide a central, cross-departmental forum within the Federal Chancellery to discuss issues affecting German security in a wide range of areas.

Welp. Wasn't that in the nick of time?

The energy committee monitors probably didn't even get a bathroom break, and I bet they thought no one would bug them for at least a week.

YOICKS

...especially as the ongoing conflict with Iran is already disrupting Middle Eastern oil flows. 

In 2025, Kazakhstan’s oil exports to Germany through the Druzhba pipeline amounted to about 2.146 million metric tons, a 44% increase compared to 2024. In the first quarter of 2026 alone, shipments reached 730,000 tons. 

A full halt would reduce crude throughput by roughly 17% at the PCK Schwedt refinery, one of Germany’s largest refineries.

Now, there are some interesting nuances to this Druzhba Kazakh pipeline itself. The Druzhba pipeline transits Russia. It had already been running at a reduced rate due to problems with the quality of the oil itself, etc., and the entire pipeline had already been scheduled to sunset.

•  This is not due to a sudden "geopolitical decision by Russia to cut off the pipeline," but to technical and contractual reasons:

•  The main operator—Russian Transneft—has repeatedly reported problems with the quality of Kazakh oil (elevated levels of organochlorine compounds and other impurities), which leads to contamination of the system and failures at European refineries.

•  Kazakhstan is gradually redirecting its exports to other routes: the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) to Novorossiysk, tankers via the Caspian to Azerbaijan and beyond, as well as growing supplies to China and Asia.

•  European countries (including Germany) have already significantly reduced their dependence on Russian/Kazakh oil via Druzhba since 2022 and have reoriented toward maritime supplies from other sources.

Russia is not "cutting" the pipeline in the sense of a full embargo or sabotage—this is a commercial-technical decision that has been discussed and forecasted for a long time. Kazakhstan and Russia continue to cooperate in the energy sector, but transit volumes through Druzhba to the EU have been declining for several years.

The problem is that the Russians' sudden imposition of a cut-off date was not part of any forecasting. The Germans are unprepared to lose this oil, which supplies fuel for most of Berlin and Brandenburg, including the aviation fuels.

How unprepared?

The official statement is, 'Well, we're watching and might be bringing some oil in from the Baltics.' None of it rings with confidence.

Russia confirmed Wednesday it will halt the pipeline flow of Kazakh oil to Germany next month, citing technical reasons, as Berlin stressed it does not expect an energy supply crunch.

The stoppage from May 1 will impact a refinery, run by the German subsidiary of Russia's state-owned oil company Rosneft, that supplies much of the Berlin region and the capital's international airport with fuel.

German government spokesman Stefan Kornelius said the stoppage "will not significantly restrict refinery operations", but added that officials are keeping a close eye on the availability of kerosene in particular.

...Rosneft Germany was "currently assessing the implications" of the pipeline closure for the refinery and was "utilising all available options to ensure security of supply in Germany", the ministry said.

The ministry said the shortfall "does not ultimately jeopardise the security of supply of mineral oil products in Germany, even if PCK Schwedt would have to operate at a lower capacity utilisation".

A ministry spokeswoman added that the refinery has another pipeline connection to the Baltic Sea port of Rostock, allowing potential seaborne deliveries of crude oil.

The Russians, for all that this is painted as a 'maintenance and technical issue,' sure didn't seem to have any problem taking a shot at the Germans over it.

This was kind of strange if that's all it really is, no?

..."From 1 May, volumes of Kazakh oil previously transported via the Druzhba pipeline to Germany will indeed be redirected to other available logistics routes. This is due to current technical capacities," he said, without giving a timeline for the resumption of supplies.

Asked about the consequences for Germany, [ Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander] Novak said: "The Germans refused Russian oil, it means everything is fine for them."

Remember, the Germans did 'reject' buying Russian oil in support of Ukraine, but have been buying the alternative Kazakh oil, which still had to flow, with Russia's permission, through Russian pipelines and with Russian pipeline operators.

Splitting a fine, fine hair there.

But back to Berlin and that refinery that some believe has been limping along since the German government eschewed those real Russian oil deliveries and developed this workaround.  There is speculation that, while the impact may not be felt as keenly nationwide, it could become more of a localized crisis come May 1.

In order to prevent any further disruptions, the German state has taken control of the PCK Russian refinery operations, especially considering the precarious state of aviation fuel supplies already.

...However, the refinery is not completely dependent on oil from Kazakhstan. Since 2022, most of its oil comes from ports, such as in Rostock and in Poland, and not via the Druzhba pipeline

However, a complete halt to deliveries via Druzhba would present a major challenge as about 17% of the almost 12 million metric tons of oil a year processed by the refinery comes via that link.

"The cessation of Kazakh oil deliveries to the PCK refinery does not ultimately jeopardize the security of supply of petroleum products in Germany, even though PCK Schwedt would have to operate at a reduced capacity," a spokesperson for the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy told DW.

...The ministry said Rosneft Germany, the subsidiary of Russian state-owned Rosneft which is now under the control of the German state, would "fulfil its obligations" and "will utilize existing options to ensure security of supply in Germany."

PCK did not respond to DW's request for comment. While the refinery is likely to have enough alternatives to maintain much of its supply, the news comes as Europe and other parts of the world are grappling with one of the most serious energy crises in decades.

The war in Iran and the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has reduced the flow of oil to Europe and Asia, and has seen prices soaring.

Kerosene, needed for jet fuel and a key product from the PCK refinery, is in particularly short supply at present as a result of the crisis. Airlines around the world have been forced to cut flights, with Lufthansa slashing 20,000 from its May to October schedule this week.

They sure are using the phrase 'likely enough' to describe praying they squeak through.

How often things are downplayed here should really make people sit up and take notice. At first, the "unknown" virus was also no threat, and what the government did afterwards should still be fresh in everyone's memory.

What it boils down to is that Europe, and particularly the Germans, thanks to their headlong rush into climate cult madness, have consigned themselves to, as one commenter said, trading one master for the other. Trading their own near energy independence for dependence on unreliable renewables and being at the mercy of someone like Putin. All to continue supplying them with what they willingly gave up to serve their virtue-signaling Gaia fetish.

They could have controlled and continued to refine their old energy generation had they chosen to. But the Putins who fill the power gaps left by renewables are, by their nature, as fickle as the wind and sun but exponentially crueler.

And when Europe or Germany takes the 'wrong' side for too long, even if regimes might need the funds, the Putins have no compunction about pulling the literal plug to send a message. They are masters of the game one gets well acquainted with in the Marine Corps (rhymes with 'duck duck'), which is arbitrary and has no #rulez.

The problem with Europeans is that they never seem to catch on and plan allowances for contingencies for someone who doesn't follow their #rulez.

Particularly anyone who's been watching them righteously cut their own throats in real time.

You know, behind the Teutonic 'likely enough' coolness, there's suddenly one helluva scramble on.

https://hotair.com/tree-hugging-sister/2026/04/22/gulp-time-in-germany-n3814180