For those today who appreciate the lessons of history, we cannot now fail the people of Iran.
Many years ago, in a previous episode of ritualistic aggression by Hamas against Israel, the latter’s intelligence monitored various actions by the terrorist group that might unwittingly indicate an imminent attack was in the making. There was one such indicator that proved to be surprisingly telling: Israeli intelligence noticed Hamas leaders had begun relocating their wives and mistresses to safer locations. This activity—along with other indicators—allowed Israel to connect the dots to determine an attack against it was imminent. When it was initiated soon thereafter, the Israelis were well prepared to defend against it.
Tensions are mounting between the U.S. and Iran as the mullahs prove committed to brutally stopping a revolution amongst its people. That revolution has now spread to all of its 31 provinces. President Donald Trump told the Iranian people “help is on the way.” As such, Iranian intelligence is obviously looking for indicators the U.S. and/or Israel is preparing to take action.
Whether done to actually initiate a plan to strike Iran or simply done to make the mullahs believe so, Trump moved non-essential U.S. personnel from Udeid Air Base in Qatar. This is the main U.S. air operations center in the region.
The ongoing protests in Iran are the most threatening Iran’s theocracy has ever experienced since coming to power in 1979. While serious protests broke out during President Barack Obama’s administration, his failure to give the Iranian people any encouragement or assistance allowed the mullahs to brutally subdue them, resulting in the deaths of thousands. But today, after nearly a half century of theocratic rule, Iranians have had enough.
It was the brutality of the Shah of Iran’s secret police—SAVAK—that caused his people to rise up against him 49 years ago, paving the way for the mullahs to come to power. But, back then, the people were—to the Shah’s credit—enjoying a much better economy. He had made this possible by introducing technological advancements, initiating infrastructure investments, creating subsidies and land grants for peasant populations, nationalizing the country’s natural resources, and implementing literacy programs considered to be some of the most effective in the world, etc.
But what the Shah created, the mullahs—by wasting funds on a domestic nuclear weapons program and on various terrorist groups while committed to imposing an extremist draconian religious ideology upon its people—have literally destroyed. Today, Iran’s economy is in a downward spiral from which there is no indication it will pull out.
The above, coupled with economic mismanagement, have had a devastating impact. The country, as Trump recently told reporters, is “in big trouble,” warning the mullahs if they start shooting protesters, the U.S. will definitely “get involved.”
A prelude to the strong anti-mullah sentiment was revealed by the September 16, 2022 death of Mahsa Amini, 22, while in morality police custody. It triggered the largest nationwide demonstrations up to that time. Tragically, her crime was simply non-compliance with hijab laws. The protests lasted for many months.
The current protests, which started several weeks ago, erupted due to numerous factors, including skyrocketing inflation and a currency collapse. As the size of the protests increased and spread, surmounting the Ahmini protests, the government shut down the internet and international telecommunications. This was obviously done to prevent its people from organizing protests and sharing information with the outside world. Government actions have also included deploying military-grade electronic jammers to block Starlink signals.
We do not yet know the real toll in Iranian lives taken by the mullahs; however, some reports suggest as many as 12,000. It is definitely time for Trump to deliver the help he promised as the violence against which he cautioned the mullahs has now occurred. While he has initiated non-military steps to do so—such as a 25% tariff “effective immediately” against countries trading with Iran in violation of U.S. sanctions—if the mullahs fail immediately to stop, military action will be necessary. (Important to understand is that these protesters—unlike many of their US anti-ICE counterpart protesters—are motivated by a desire for freedom and are unpaid.)
While unverified, there are reports Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior leaders have a plane ready to fly them to Russia should the situation further deteriorate. That seems to be the country of choice for dictators, with Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad fleeing his country taking his family with him in late 2024 as Damascus fell to rebel forces after a 13-year civil war. If Khamenei and his gang of thieves intend to take their stolen wealth with them, they will need a very large aircraft to do so. (Interestingly, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro almost agreed with the U.S. to a voluntary exit from office until he included a demand to keep $200 million in illicit funds with no accountability.)
Trump, recognizing that the mullahs used negotiations in the past with the U.S. under Obama as a stall tactic, has broken off any such discussions with Iran. With what Trump did in Venezuela fresh on their minds, although appearing defiant on social media and blaming the U.S./Israel for their protesters’ “terrorist war,” the mullahs are begging for talks.
There is justification for another U.S. attack on Iran. It is difficult to identify a single agreement with which the mullahs have complied since in power. This includes the 2016 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action—a deal Obama boasted would not allow Tehran to have nukes as it agreed its nuclear program would be exclusively peaceful. The mullahs are dead set on having a nuclear arsenal and nothing, short of military action, will destroy that commitment.
In 1973, we withdrew from the Vietnam conflict, promising the South we would re-enter it if the North ever violated the peace agreement by invading the former. That promise—not part of a written deal but made as a verbal promise to the South—was undoubtedly made only to get it to agree to a U.S. exit. We had no real intention of keeping it.
It was unfair to those in the South who were motivated to keep fighting the North, believing we had their backs should it invade. Many Southern Vietnamese would lose their lives, spend years in “reeducation” camps, or pursue ways to evade and escape communist rule. Pumping a resistance force up to continue fighting its brutal government, just to let it down, cannot be part of U.S. foreign policy.
For those today who appreciate the lessons of history, we cannot now fail the people of Iran. Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign ran on a pledge that “promises made are promises kept.” This applies on an international level as well.
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