The New New York GOP (Likely) Nominee for Governor Has Potential, but He Needs to Start Raising Money

Friday was a big day in New York politics, as has been reported by RedState.  

Republican Congresswoman Elise Stefanik (NY-21) dramatically announced that she was abandoning her race for governor. This leaves Bruce Blakeman, the two-term Nassau County Executive, as the likely nominee for the Republicans. Especially with the decision of the New York Republican Chairman Ed Cox to back Blakeman after Stefanik left the race, and New York’s Conservative Party Chairman, Jerry Kassar, to echo his support. 

The reasons for Rep. Stefanik’s decision seem obvious. The 2025 elections had not gone well for the GOP, including in neighboring New Jersey, as the TDS-afflicted Democrat voters had shown they were willing to climb over broken glass to stick it to President Trump by voting for any particular Democrat, no matter what that Democrat’s personal qualities (e.g., they would vote for a yellow dog over a Republican). And New York is even more solidly Democrat than New Jersey. Also, as Stefanik said, Blakeman’s decision to challenge Stefanik for the nomination meant that even if she won the primary race – as most polling showed she would – this would inevitably distract her, build her negatives, and drain her campaign fund.  

The question now becomes, where does this leave the GOP in the campaign?  

Rep. Stefanik’s decision certainly may be a net negative for the GOP.  As my normally pessimistic conservative buddy Cameron argues, Stefanik was much better known statewide, had charisma, had a big campaign warchest, and was energetically campaigning for the office for the past few months (both unofficially and then officially). She was more conservative and youthful (she is forty and looks younger).  

Stefanik also had been steadily appealing to the big donors (i.e., those who could afford to create super PACs to support her).   

However, I tend to think Rep. Stefanik’s decision is a net positive for the GOP IF Bruce Blakeman can raise the necessary funding. Blakeman has executive experience, comes from a more politically critical area, is not tied to Washington, D.C., is less tied to the president, is considered more moderate (he is pro-choice), and at 70 years old is more distinguished (but not too old) to serve as a governor.  

All of this should give him greater appeal to independents and soft Democrats who are disgruntled with incumbent Democrat Gov. Kathy Hochul. But let me explain in more depth.

 Although Bruce Blakeman spent many years as a perennial candidate, often used to contest elections where the GOP wanted someone on the ballot but didn’t expect to win, he revitalized himself by upsetting the incumbent Democrat Nassau County Executive in 2021. He then won a second term with 56 percent of the vote in 2025, while other Republicans throughout the state and nation were getting badly beaten. His victory had coattails, as the GOP candidates notched an 11-0 record in contested executive branch races in Nassau and held onto the county legislature.  

In 2025, Blakeman campaigned on his fiscal conservatism, his tax cuts, his tough on crime approach, which saw a reduction in the crime rate, and as a foe of the Communist Radical Muslim (CRM), Zohran Mamdani:

“Most of the television commercials that they put up were all about ‘Mamdani, Mamdani, democratic socialists,’” Nassau Democratic Chair Jay Jacobs said. “Their tagline was, in effect, ‘Vote Republican and save Nassau County from becoming a socialist county.’ That plays well with a moderate audience.”

Blakeman also made excellent use of other wedge issues by taking a tough stance to ban biological males from playing on female sports teams, striking a deal with ICE to round up illegals, and signing a mask ban bill that punishes the left-wing rioters attacking Jews and others on college campuses and elsewhere.  

Blakeman is a Jewish American, and Jews make up about 10 percent of the state of New York. The Jewish community, which is ancestrally a Democrat voting bloc, is uniquely in play this year.   

In 2024, President Trump won 45 percent of New York Jews, an increase from his 30 percent in 2020. This is due largely to Trump’s unique record as well as the craziness of the Democrats, whose Antifa shock troops are literally rioting on the streets, demanding the globalization of the intifada, and voting for the CRM. 

Blakeman also represents the most politically crucial county in New York. Nassau is the sixth most populous county in the state.  Already, the GOP does well throughout much of upstate. Stefanik’s district is there, and it is solidly Republican. Meanwhile, the Democrats have a huge edge in New York City, which means that the independent counties of Long Island, Nassau, and Suffolk (the fourth most populous) must be won for any statewide GOP victory. And Nassau is the more diverse and left-wing of the two, with a 70,000-voter edge for the Democrats.  

Blakeman has already made clear what issues he plans to campaign on in 2026. As in 2025, he vows to run on fiscal conservatism, lowering taxes, and opposing sanctuary for illegal aliens. He will spotlight the evils of the CRM and Gov. Hochul’s endorsement of him. And he will focus on affordability and quality of life.  In his Facebook announcement, Blakeman said:

Our state is struggling under policies that have driven up taxes, utility bills, and crime. It’s time for a proven leader who will Put New York First.  New Yorkers deserve leadership that works — not more empty promises. I’m ready to take on Kathy Hochul and get results for our families.

The Democrats, of course, will follow their game plan from 2025 and run against Trump. However, they tried this against Blakeman in 2025, and it didn’t work for them then, despite Blakeman refusing to distance himself from the president.   

Blakeman still faces a steep challenge winning statewide, however. New York voted for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris for president in 2024 by around 13 percentage points - although that marked a rightward shift from 2020. The keys to his winning this race will probably be: 

1) Gov. Hochul’s record and political weakness

2) The CRM’s record

3) Blakeman’s fundraising 

Unlike in New Jersey and Virginia in 2025, in New York in 2026, the incumbent Democrat governor is seeking reelection and is herself unpopular. She is also facing a challenge from her own Lt. Governor (although I suspect the Democrats will unite around her now). And the CRM has started early with his left-wing communist utopian fiscal buffoonery, and it doesn’t seem to be able to temper his Jew-bating and his fondness for Islamist terrorists.  

Which just leaves the fundraising. 

Blakeman needs to raise money, big time. In 2025, he did very well, but that was as the sitting County Executive who was favored to win re-election in that county. Now, he is the underdog, and Blakeman himself is not independently wealthy enough to fund his own campaign.  

If I were Bruce Blakeman, I would be dialing donors nonstop, starting today.  

https://redstate.com/adam-turner/2025/12/20/the-new-new-york-gop-likely-nominee-for-governor-has-potential-but-he-needs-to-start-raising-money-n2197317