Recent polling
data suggests that
Nigel Farage‘s Reform Party appears poised for a major breakthrough in a parliamentary by-election (special election) in the United Kingdom. The latest poll conducted by Lord Ashcroft indicates the populist party could secure 40 percent of the vote in the Runcorn and Helsby constituency, ahead of the ruling Labour Party’s projected 35 percent.
The by-election follows the resignation of Labour’s Mike Amesbury after he was convicted of physically
assaulting a constituent. Amesbury admitted to punching the constituent but received only a suspended
prison sentence.
Reform’s potential parliamentary breakthrough comes despite drama over an existing Member of Parliament, Rupert Lowe, being
suspended from the party. Lowe faces bullying accusations but blames quarrels over
leadership dynamics with
Farage for the fallout. Lowe is also alleged to have threatened the party’s chairman, Zia Yusuf—although he denies this.
Reform has seen
massive gains in polling since the July 2024 snap election, in which the party—for the first time—won a handful of parliamentary seats and placed third nationally by share of the popular vote. In recent months, they have consistently polled ahead of the
Conservative Party, which governed Britain for 14 years prior to the current Labour government. They have occasionally polled ahead of Labour, too, and are well within striking distance of the leftist party.
Recent polling data suggests that Nigel Farage‘s Reform Party appears poised for a major breakthrough in a parliamentary by-election (special election) in the United Kingdom. The latest poll conducted by Lord Ashcroft indicates the populist party could secure 40 percent of the vote in the Runcorn and Helsby constituency, ahead of the ruling Labour Party’s projected 35 percent.
The by-election follows the resignation of Labour’s Mike Amesbury after he was convicted of physically assaulting a constituent. Amesbury admitted to punching the constituent but received only a suspended prison sentence.
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Reform’s potential parliamentary breakthrough comes despite drama over an existing Member of Parliament, Rupert Lowe, being suspended from the party. Lowe faces bullying accusations but blames quarrels over leadership dynamics with Farage for the fallout. Lowe is also alleged to have threatened the party’s chairman, Zia Yusuf—although he denies this.
Reform has seen massive gains in polling since the July 2024 snap election, in which the party—for the first time—won a handful of parliamentary seats and placed third nationally by share of the popular vote. In recent months, they have consistently polled ahead of the Conservative Party
