The 119th Congress convenes Friday as embattled Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) fights to keep his gavel after 14 rocky months.
The House will meet at noon and must elect a Speaker before conducting any official business, legislative or otherwise. Members cannot be sworn in until after the Speaker is elected. The House cannot officially adopt its rules package either.
The Speaker must receive a majority of votes of the entire House chamber. With former Rep. Matt Gaetz not expected to take his seat, 219 Republicans will be expected to 215 Democrats. Johnson can only lose one Republican vote, if all Democrats vote for another candidate as expected.
Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) has made clear he will vote against Johnson come hell or high water. Johnson cannot lose another vote.
Reps. Chip Roy (R-TX) and around a dozen other members are continuing to negotiation with Johnson up until the first – perhaps only – ballot over how the House will operate. Johnson’s opposition wants to ensure Johnson will work with his own members, not Democrats, to craft giant legislative packages, to fight for spending cuts, and ensure committees and individual members have input. They’d also like the House to return to regular order.
Across the Capitol, the Senate will conduct routine business with no fireworks expected. The Senate is a continuing body which does not need to enact a new rules package at the beginning of each Congress. Only the newly elected Senators must be sworn in. Their heavy lifting of vetting and confirming President-elect Donald Trump’s nominees and moving his legislative agenda is unlikely to begin in earnest for another week.
But in the House, high drama is expected. Johnson, fresh off a renewed Trump endorsement, is publicly expressing confidence he can win on the first ballot. But his opponents may wish to make him sweat in order to squeeze out additional concessions. Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) has publicly advocated for moving Roy to the chairmanship of the powerful Rules Committee, although Johnson is unlikely to make that move if at all possible.
Johnson is in better shape after Trump’s endorsement, but he may have to earn the gavel in the final hours. If he can’t get across the finish line, the House might again devolve into chaos as it did in January 2023 and October 2023 when former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) took 15 ballots to win the gavel and then after he got ejected after only nine months.
If the first ballot is inconclusive, the House cannot recess due to no rules package having been adopted. After a first or subsequent inconclusive ballot, Johnson could choose to adjourn for a set amount of time, perhaps even until Saturday, or he could continue to pressure members inside the chambers – in front of television cameras.
If Johnson can’t win after two or three ballots, all bets are off.
UPDATE 11:51 am EST:
Trump tells CNN he is confident Johnson will win over holdouts. “Chip Roy will do what’s right for the country,” he said. Roy has been leading the negotiations with Johnson ahead of the first vote.
UPDATE 11:47 a.m. EST:
Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) arrives in the chamber to light applause from Democrats. She broke her hip in December while in Europe on official government business. Democrats are expected to have all their members present for the vote.
UPDATE 11:46 a.m. EST:
Johnson has arrived on the House floor fifteen minutes before the new Congress begins. He’s walking around the chamber greeting members and is now having a conversation with the House chaplain..
UPDATE 11:45 a.m. EST:
Rep. Don Bacon, a moderate often critical of House conservatives, tells NOTUS that “putting Chip Roy in charge of the Rules Committee is like putting Stalin in charge of amnesty and diplomacy.”
But conservatives are pushing back, highlighting Bacon’s voting record and castigating him as a RINO.
UPDATE 11:42 a.m. ET:
Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN) also predicts Johnson wins on the first ballot, although as a member of leadership, Emmer is likely to parrot Johnson’s messaging.
UPDATE 11:40 a.m. ET:
Former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), a Trump ally, new television host, and the only member elected to the 119th Congress not expected to attend today, predicts Johnson will win on the first ballot.
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