Pollster Frank Luntz said that Vice President Kamala Harris’ historically effective campaign launch is not sufficient for her to defeat former President Donald Trump in the 2024 election.
Harris is currently leading Trump nationally by 1.5% after the vice president launched her campaign on July 21, according to the RealClearPolling average. Luntz, on “CNN News Central,” said that despite Harris having the “best launch” in decades, the polling difference between her and Trump is so small that she must surge after the Democratic National Convention (DNC) to have a clear path to victory.
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“She’s had the best launch that I’ve seen in my career. You’d have to go back to a time that I don’t remember, to [former Republican presidential nominee] Wendell Willkie in 1940, someone who‘s taken the country by storm, but that’s still not enough … The difference is so miniscule between Trump and Harris, but that’s why these two nights, tonight and tomorrow night, are so important,” Luntz said.
“She’s seeking to define herself, not just her personality, not just character traits and attributes, but on the issues that matter most to the voters. We know where Donald Trump stands,” he continued. “And in case after case, Trump does better on the issues that he does in his persona … She does better in her character traits and her persona than she does on the issues. The next 48 hours will determine how much of a bump she can get and whether or not she leaves the convention with a meaningful advantage over the former president.”
Trump only has a .2% lead over Harris in the seven battleground states after boasting a 4.3% lead over President Joe Biden when he was still running his reelection campaign, according to the RealClearPolling averages.
Former Bill Clinton adviser Mark Penn said on Tuesday that “it’s not surprising” that Harris has “surged in the polls” because of the positive press coverage she has received.
Democratic strategist James Carville told his party on Monday not to be “giddy” about Harris’ chances of beating Trump, as the former president historically “overperforms his polling averages.”
“I’m glad that people are feeling better. I’m glad that people are excited. But anybody that looks at this with any sense of history, any sense of objectivity, sees that there’s plenty possible pitfalls that we’re faced with. And we need to acknowledge that and stop being giddy all the time,” Carville said.
https://dailycaller.com/2024/08/21/frank-luntz-harris-decades-not-enough-beat-trump/
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