AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE: Even just reading the transcript, you could hear the anguish in the words of Gen. Scott Miller, the last U.S. commander in Afghanistan, as he explained to reporters in Kabul how he would manage the task of extricating thousands of remaining U.S. troops and contract workers from the country still riven by decades of war.
“The President of the United States and subsequently the nations of NATO have determined that we will end our military mission. As such, I now have a set of orders,” Miller said yesterday in the Afghan capital. “It's my objective to ensure that the Afghan security forces are in the best possible security posture, also that we will conduct an orderly withdrawal from Afghanistan. And that means transitioning bases and equipment to the Afghan security forces and also charged with ensuring it is as safe as possible.”
WARNING THE TALIBAN: The Taliban say by failing to meet the May 1 withdrawal deadline, the U.S. is in violation of the agreement negotiated by the Trump administration last year, and therefore U.S. forces are now subject to attack.
“The Taliban have claimed we've violated the agreement and that they have no violations. We know that's not true,” Miller said, noting he has personally warned the Taliban not to interfere with the withdrawal.
“I've had the opportunity to talk to Taliban members with the Taliban Political Commission, and I've told them a return to violence, an effort to force a military decision would be a tragedy for Afghanistan and the Afghan people,” he said. “Make no mistake, we have the military means to respond forcefully to any type of attacks against the coalition and the military means to support the Afghan security forces. That would be a mistake to move in that direction.”
Miller said he also warned the Taliban against continuing their campaign of targeted assassinations of Afghan officials. “We know those are meant to terrorize the population by conducting that type of activity. And we've talked to the Taliban about that. That is unacceptable,” he said.
THE LATEST PENTAGON REPORT: On Friday, the Pentagon released its latest congressionally mandated report on operations in Afghanistan, Enhancing Security and Stability in Afghanistan, which outlines the situation in the country six months ago.
Since the report covers the period from June to November of last year, much of the information is now out of date. But the report does provide a window on just how extensive the international support mission has been to prop up the Afghan security forces in their civil war with the Taliban.
As of November, NATO’s Operation Resolute Support consisted of approximately 8,000 military personnel from 37 nations, with the United States, Germany, Italy, and Turkey each leading one or more regional “Train, Advise, and Assist” commands with five headquarters covering 32 provinces. All those troops, plus any foreign contractors, must leave, and their equipment either brought home or turned over to the Afghans.
“There's certain equipment that we must take back to our countries. That's a requirement,” said Miller. “But wherever possible, if we do not have to, we're looking to ensure that the Afghan security forces have the bases, pieces of equipment, parts that are necessary for the functioning of the military.”
At the Pentagon Friday, spokesman John Kirby said some of the “rolling stock” will be brought back to the U.S., some deployed elsewhere in the region, some provided to Afghan partners, and some will be “destroyed.”
IT’S UP TO THE AFGHAN PEOPLE: Miller says the U.S. will continue to support the Afghan government in any way it can, short of sending troops back in, but he stressed the future of the country now hinges on the peace process and the fighting will of the Afghan military.
“My message to the people of Afghanistan is this is the time for unity. It's the time to come together. It's a time to support your security forces,” he said. “They must be ready. And they need the support of the Afghan people.”
As for the Taliban, Miller said, “From a purely military perspective, the idea of them not returning to a peace process is, again, does not make sense ... It's the only solution. If you go forward and start thinking about this in terms of forcing a military or a violent solution, that's something that would not be good for Afghanistan.”
ANALYSIS - FIVE REASONS BIDEN’S AFGHANISTAN WITHDRAWAL IS THE RIGHT MOVE
ANALYSIS - FIVE REASONS BIDEN’S AFGHANISTAN WITHDRAWAL IS A BIG MISTAKE
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BIDEN CALLS ERDOGAN AHEAD OF GENOCIDE DECLARATION: President Joe Biden called Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan Friday, one day before he became the first U.S. president to recognize the mass murder of Armenians by the Ottoman Empire officially as a genocide.
“Beginning on April 24, 1915, with the arrest of Armenian intellectuals and community leaders in Constantinople by Ottoman authorities, one and a half million Armenians were deported, massacred, or marched to their deaths in a campaign of extermination,” Biden said in a statement on Armenian Remembrance Day. “Each year on this day, we remember the lives of all those who died in the Ottoman-era Armenian genocide and recommit ourselves to preventing such an atrocity from ever again occurring.”
Turkey has long disputed the death toll and argued the fighting between Armenians and Ottoman forces did not constitute genocide. On Twitter, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu rejected the characterization. “We have nothing to learn from anybody on our own past,” he tweeted. “We entirely reject this statement based solely on populism.”
While Biden’s genocide declaration injects another sore spot in Washington’s fraught relationship with Ankara, it was applauded by members of Congress who had lobbied for the recognition of the massacre.
“Calling this atrocity what it was — genocide — is long overdue because we must recognize the horrors of the past if we hope to avoid repeating them in the future,” said Massachusetts Democrat Sen. Elizabeth Warren. “This is an important human rights moment. President Biden pledged to put human rights back at the core of U.S. foreign policy, and I applaud this affirmation.”
BIDEN TO MEET ERDOGAN AT NATO: In the brief readout of the phone call between Biden and Erdogan, the White House said Biden conveyed his interest “in a constructive bilateral relationship with expanded areas of cooperation and effective management of disagreements,” and said the two leaders agreed to hold a bilateral meeting on the margins of the NATO Summit in June “to discuss the full range of bilateral and regional issues.”
The Washington-based Jewish Institute for National Security of America
WAS RUSSIA CONDUCTING A ‘DRESS REHEARSAL’? Last week in a state-of-the-nation speech, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned the West not to cross his “red lines,” saying that Moscow would respond to any provocations, and those responsible would regret it.
“We really do not want to burn bridges. But if someone mistakes our good intentions for indifference or weakness and intends to burn or even blow up these bridges, they must know that Russia's response will be asymmetrical, swift, and tough,” Putin said, according to an English translation on his website. “I hope that no one will think about crossing the ‘red line’ with regard to Russia.”
“I think this was a dress rehearsal, such as the ones before the invasion of Georgia,” Sikorski told CNN’s Fareed Zakaria Sunday. “Putin, remember, has failed in Ukraine. He wanted to integrate the whole country into his Euro-Asiatic union.
Sikorski says he has “no doubt,” Putin will try again. “Remember that back in 2014, the Russians were very close to carrying out Operation Novorossiya, which would have been taking over half of Ukraine and cutting it off of the Black Sea. And I think those plans are still being considered.”
DEFENSE DEPARTMENT WARY OF RUSSIAN CLAIM OF TROOP WITHDRAWAL FROM UKRAINE BORDER
REPEALING REMARRIAGE PENALTY FOR GOLD STAR SPOUSES: Two combat veterans in Congress, a Democrat and a Republican, have teamed up to introduce a bill that would repeal a provision that denies benefits to spouses of troops killed in the line of duty if they remarry.
“Under current law, widows and widowers of service members killed in the line of duty are forced to forfeit earned benefits should they remarry before 55 and 57,” said former Green Beret Rep. Mike Waltz, a Florida Democrat. “These arbitrary age limits are completely nonsensical and only punishes those who forever mourn the loss of their spouse.”
“When Americans sign up to serve in the military, they should know the American people have their backs. If they sacrifice their lives for our country, the least our country can do is take care of their families,” said Massachusetts Democrat Rep. Seth Moulton, a former Marine infantry officer. “We owe a debt that cannot be fully repaid to Gold Star families. We must fix this for them.”
NOMINATIONS SHAPE BIDEN PENTAGON: The latest nominations announced by the White House Friday, continue to put Biden’s stamp on the Defense Department. Among them:
Shawn Skelly, nominated to be assistant secretary of defense for readiness, would be the highest-ranking openly transgender official to serve at the Pentagon.
Brenda Sue Fulton, nominated to be assistant secretary of defense for manpower and reserve affairs, was in the first West Point class to admit women and the first openly gay member to serve on the the academy’s Board of Visitors.
Other nominations announced Friday include:
Christopher Maier, acting assistant secretary of defense for special operations/low intensity conflict, to assume the position full time.
And Deborah Rosenblum, nominated to be assistant secretary of defense for nuclear, chemical, and biological defense.
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Defense Department wary of Russian claim of troop withdrawal from Ukraine border
Washington Examiner: Lawmakers seek gender-neutral VA slogan to replace Lincoln’s words
Washington Examiner
Washington Examiner: NIH says it has identified over 500 ‘scientists of concern’ amid Chinese theft challenge
Washington Examiner: 82 killed and over 100 injured in Baghdad hospital fire, Iraq Interior Ministry says
Seapower Magazine: Service Chiefs Will Weigh In On Controversial Plan To Remove Commanders’ Control Over Sexual Assault Cases
Reuters: EU Blames China For Endangering Peace In South China Sea
South China Morning Post: How Next-Generation Technology Could Allow U.S. To Fight Off Mainland Chinese Invasion Of Taiwan
Reuters: China Could Rule World's Technology, UK Cyber Spy Chief Says
AP: New UK Aircraft Carrier To Set Sail For Asia Next Month
NBC News: Defense Secretary Austin Orders Aircraft Carrier And Bombers To Guard U.S. Withdrawal From Afghanistan
Washington Post: U.S. plan to withdraw from Afghanistan prompts fears that U.S. hostage held by Taliban will be left behind
New York Times: Iran’s Foreign Minister, in Leaked Tape, Says Revolutionary Guards Set Policies
Bloomberg: Iran Says U.S. Must Lift Sanctions From 1,500 People To Fix Nuclear Deal
Washington Post: Minutes before Trump left office, millions of the Pentagon’s dormant IP addresses sprang to life
Air Force News: B-52s Return to the Middle East as Afghanistan Withdrawal Begins
Just the News: Putin's inflatable army: Does Russia plan to fake out the West with inflatable tanks?
Military.com: The Marines Need Volunteers to Help Them Reassess Body Standards
National Defense Magazine: Light Amphibious Warships Face Survivability Questions
19fortyfive.com: China's Aircraft Carriers in Africa?
19fortyfive.com
19fortyfive.com: An Unmanned Future for the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps?
Bloomberg: Opinion: James Stavridis: Four Ways a China-U.S. War at Sea Could Play Out
Calendar
MONDAY | APRIL 26
10 a.m. — International Institute for Strategic Studies webinar on new report, "Open-Source Analysis on Iran's Missile and UAV Capabilities and Proliferation,” with Mark Fitzpatrick, associate fellow at IISS; Douglas Barrie, senior fellow for military aerospace at IISS; John Krzyzaniak, research analyst for nonproliferation and nuclear policy at IISS; and Fabian Hinz, consultant at IISS. https://www.iiss.org/events
10 a.m. — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs virtual discussion: “U.S.-ROK Relations: Challenges and Opportunities under the Biden Administration,” with Rep. Andy Kim, D-N.J.; and Jisoo Kim, director of the GWU Institute for Korean Studies. http://elliott.gwu.edu
12 p.m. — Intelligence National Security Alliance virtual discussion with Navy Vice Adm. Robert Sharp, director of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency. https://www.insaonline.org/event/leadership-luncheon
1 p.m. — Georgetown University Asian Studies Program webinar on issues related to the Asia-Pacific region, with Rep. Mike Gallagher, R-Wis. https://www.georgetown.edu/event
TUESDAY | APRIL 27
8:30 a.m. — Raytheon Technologies First Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call https://investors.rtx.com/events/event-details/first-quarter-2021-earnings-conference-call
10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies virtual Nuclear Deterrence Forum event with experts Matthew Kroenig; Matthew Costlow; and Peter Huessy, director of nuclear deterrence studies, the Mitchell Institute. https://www.mitchellaerospacepower.org
10 a.m. — Atlantic Council webinar: “The Consequences of Nord Stream 2,” with Rep. Marcy Kaptur, D-Ohio; Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, R-Pa.; former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, director of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center; Anders Aslund, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council; former Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Daniel Fried, fellow at the Atlantic Council; Agnia Grigas, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council; Melinda Haring, deputy director of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
10:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webinar: “Revitalizing NATO's Political Cohesion,” with French Permanent Representative to NATO Muriel Domenach; and Omid Nouripour, foreign policy spokesman for the German Green Party. https://www.csis.org/events/revitalizing-natos-political-cohesion
12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion with U.K. Air Chief Marshal Mike Wigston on "the implications of the U.K. Integrated Review for NATO, the United States, and global security,” and Bryan Clark, director of the Hudson Center for Defense Concepts and Technology. https://www.hudson.org/events
12:40 p.m. — Modern War Institute at West Point and the Lieber Institute for Law and Land Warfare virtual event: “The Future Of Proxy Warfare,” with Maj. Alex Deep, MWI fellow; Army strategist Maj. Matt McDaniel; and British army officer and attorney Maj. Jenny Maddocks. https://lieber.westpoint.edu/event/the-future-of-proxy-warfare/
1 p.m. — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research event “A conversation with Commander of U.S. Central Command,” with Marine Gen. Frank McKenzie; and Elaine McCusker, resident fellow, AEI. https://www.aei.org/events/a-conversation
1 p.m. — Center for a New American Security conversation: “The U.S. Army's Strategic Priorities,” with John Whitley, acting Secretary of the Army; Gen. James McConville, chief of staff of the Army; and Gen. John Murray, commanding general of Army Futures Command; moderated by Stacie Pettyjohn, senior fellow and director, CNAS Defense Program. https://cnas.zoom.us/webinar/register
2 p.m. — Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments virtual roundtable on “The future of the U.S. Navy,” with Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Michael Gilday; and Thomas Mahnken, president and CEO, CSBA. https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register
WEDNESDAY | APRIL 28
10 a.m. — House Appropriations Homeland Security Subcommittee hearing on "Coast Guard Readiness,” with Adm. Karl Schultz, commandant of the U.S. Coast Guard. http://appropriations.house.gov
10 a.m. — Air Force Research Laboratory commander Brig. Gen. Heather Pringle; and Joel Mozer, chief scientist of the U.S. Space Force; hold roundtable discussion with members of the media. https://afresearchlab.com/
10:30 a.m. — Boeing conference call to release financial results for the first quarter of 2021, with David Calhoun, Boeing president and CEO; and Greg Smith, executive vice president of enterprise operations and CFO. https://investors.boeing.com/investors
11 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee hearing on "The Department of Defense's Financial Improvement and Audit Readiness Plan: FY2020 Audit Results and the Path Forward,” with Douglas Glenn, deputy CFO of the Defense Department; Wesley Miller, senior official performing the duties of the assistant secretary of the Army for financial management/comptroller; Alaleh Jenkins, performing the duties of the assistant secretary of the Navy for financial management/comptroller; and Stephen Herrera, principal deputy assistant secretary of the Air Force for financial management/comptroller. http://www.armedservices.house.gov
11 a.m. — Institute for Defense and Government Advancement virtual 2021 Hypersonic Weapons conference, with Mike White, principal director for hypersonics in the Office of the Defense Undersecretary for Research and Engineering. https://www.idga.org/events-hypersonicweapons
5 p.m. — Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies virtual seminar: Subtle Dimensions of National Power — The U.S. in a Post-Pandemic World,” with former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta; Carla Freeman, executive director of the SAIS Foreign Policy Institute; and Eliot Cohen, dean of SAIS https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events
8 p.m. House Chamber, U.S. Capitol — President Joe Biden delivers an address to a joint session of Congress. https://docs.house.gov/floor/
THURSDAY | APRIL 29
9 a.m. — Northrop Grumman conference call to release earnings and financial results for the first quarter of 2021 https://edge.media-server.com
9 a.m. — Atlantic Council webinar: “Putin's Mediterranean Gambit: Endgame Unclear,” Christopher Bort, National Intelligence Council officer for Russia and Eurasia; Deputy Assistant Defense Secretary for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia Laura Cooper; and William Wechsler, director of Middle East programs at the Atlantic Council. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/putins-mediterranean-gambit
9 a.m. — Institute for Defense and Government Advancement holds virtual 2021 Hypersonic Weapons conference, with Rear Adm. Tom Druggan, Missile Defense Agency program executive for sea-based weapons systems. https://www.idga.org/events-hypersonicweapons
10 a.m. — Brookings Institution webinar: “Challenges Facing America's Defense Budget,” with former Defense Department Comptroller Robert Hale, senior executive adviser at Booz Allen Hamilton; Caitlin Talmadge, nonresident senior fellow at Brookings; and Michael O'Hanlon, senior fellow at Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/events
10 a.m. — House Appropriations Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies Subcommittee hearing: "Violent Extremism and Domestic Terrorism in America: The Role and Response of DOJ,” with Jill Sanborn, assistant director for the FBI Counterterrorism Division; and Brad Wiegmann, deputy assistant attorney general for the National Security Division. http://appropriations.house.gov
11 a.m. — House Appropriations Defense Subcommittee hearing: "FY2022 United States Navy and Marine Corps Budget,” with Acting Secretary of the Navy Thomas Harker; Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Michael Gilday; and Commandant of the Marine Corps Gen. David Berger. http://appropriations.house.gov
11 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee and House Foreign Affairs Asia, the Pacific, Central Asia and Nonproliferation Subcommittee joint hearing on "Maritime Security in the Indo-Pacific and the UN Convention for the Law of the Sea,” with retired Navy Adm. Scott Swift; Bonnie Glaser, senior adviser for Asia and director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies' China Power Project; and Daniel Russel, vice president for international security and diplomacy at the Asia Society Policy Institute. http://www.armedservices.house.gov
11 a.m. — Woodrow Wilson Center Middle East Program virtual book discussion on "No-Win War: The Paradox of U.S.-Pakistan Relations in Afghanistan's Shadow,” with author Zahid Hussain. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/book-launch
11 a.m. — Henry L. Stimson Center webinar: ‘A New Agenda for U.S. Drone Policy and the use of Lethal Force,” with Luke Hartig, fellow at New America; Naz Modirzadeh, founding director of the Harvard Law School Program on International Law and Armed Conflict; Hina Shamsi, director of the American Civil Liberties Union's National Security Project; and Rachel Stohl, vice president of the Stimson Center. https://www.stimson.org/event/a-new-agenda-for-u-s-drone-policy
3 p.m. — Atlantic Council webinar: “Artificial Intelligence: Realizing a U.S. Strategy for the AI Era,” with National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence Vice Chair Robert Work, president and owner of TeamWork LLC; and National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence Commissioner Safra Catz, CEO of the Oracle Corporation. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
FRIDAY | APRIL 30
10:30 a.m. — Aspen Security Forum virtual event:”The Biden Administration's first 100 days,” with Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks; former Deputy Secretary of State Steve Biegun; former national security adviser Tom Donilon, chairman of BlackRock Investment Institute; former U.S. Trade Representative Mike Froman, vice chairman and president, strategic growth for Mastercard. https://aspeninst.zoom.us/webinar/register
9 a.m. — Institute for Defense and Government Advancement virtual 2021 Hypersonic Weapons conference, with Gen. Glen VanHerck, commander of North American Aerospace Defense Command and U.S. Northern Command. https://www.idga.org/events-hypersonicweapons
10 a.m. — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research webinar: “Russian Hybrid Warfare in Europe: Lessons for the U.S,” with Jakub Janda, executive director of European values at the Center for Security Policy; Edward Lucas, senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis; Maria Snegovaya, visiting scholar at George Washington University; Dalibor Rohac, resident scholar at AEI; and Ivana Stradner, fellow at AEI. https://www.aei.org/events/russian-hybrid-warfare
12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: ‘U.S.-Australian relations and key foreign policy challenges,” with Australian Ambassador to the U.S. Arthur Sinodinos; and Walter Russell Mead, fellow in strategy and statesmanship at Hudson. https://www.hudson.org/events
2 p.m. — Business Council for International Understanding off-the-record and closed press virtual discussion with Marine Gen. Frank McKenzie, commander of the U.S. Central Command. http://www.bciu.org/events/upcoming-events
3:30 p.m. — Washington Post Live event: “The Path Forward: Space Force,” with Gen. John W. “Jay” Raymond, chief of space operations, U.S. Space Force; and David Ignatius, Washington Post columnist. https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live
7 p.m. — National Committee on North Korea webinar: “Nuclear Monitoring and Verification in North Korea, with Mark Schanfein, senior nonproliferation adviser at the Idaho National Laboratory https://www.ncnk.org/event-calendar/webcast
An anxious time in Afghanistan as US withdrawal begins | Washington Examiner
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