Interim Pre-pandemic Planning Guidance:Community Strategy for Pandemic Influenza Mitigation in the United States

https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/11425

From the CDC website listed above.  The report totals 105 pages so I just put up some charts, which show how much of a problem COVID-19 will be if the Case Fatality Ratio = 2.0%.  The results in the charts show results for 30% of the population being infected.  A Harvard epidemiologist predicted 40 to 70% worldwide infection rate (Harvard Professor Believes Large Sum of World Population Will Be Infected With Coronavirus Within the Year.  

https://ijr.com/harvard-professor-population-infected-coronavirus/ )

Generally Not Recommended = Unless there is a compelling rationale for specific populations or jurisdictions, measures are generally not recommended for entire populations as the consequences may outweigh the benefits.Consider = Important to consider these alternatives as part of a prudent planning strategy, considering characteristics of the pandemic, such as age-specific illness rate, geographic distribution, and the magnitude of adverse consequences.
These factors may vary globally, nationally, and locally.
Recommended = Generally recommended as an important component of the planning strategy.*All these interventions should be used in combination with other infection control measures, including hand hygiene, cough etiquette, and personal protective equipment such as face masks. Additional information on infection control measures is available at www.pandemicflu.gov.†This intervention may be combined with the treatment of sick individuals using antiviral medications and with vaccine campaigns, if supplies are available §Many sick individuals who are not critically ill may be managed safely at home ¶The contribution made by contact with asymptomatically infected individuals to disease transmission is unclear. Household members in homes with ill persons may be at increased risk of contracting pandemic disease from an ill household member. These household members may have asymptomatic illness and may be able to shed influenza virus that promotes community disease transmission. Therefore, household members of homes with sick individuals would be advised to stay home.

**To facilitate compliance and decrease risk of household transmission, this intervention may be combined with provision of antiviral medications to household contacts, depending on drug availability, feasibility of distribution, and effectiveness; policy recommendations for antiviral prophylaxis are addressed in a separate guidance document.††Consider short-term implementation of this measure—that is, less than 4 weeks.§§Plan for prolonged implementation of this measure—that is, 1 to 3 months; actual duration may vary depending on transmission in the community as the pandemic wave is expected to last 6-8 weeks

Generally Not Recommended = Unless there is a compelling rationale for

specific populations or jurisdictions, measures are generally not recommended

for entire populations as the consequences may outweigh the benefits.

Consider = Important to consider these alternatives as part of a prudent planning

strategy, considering characteristics of the pandemic, such as age-specific illness

rate, geographic distribution, and the magnitude of adverse consequences.

These factors may vary globally, nationally, and locally.

Recommended = Generally recommended as an important component of the

planning strategy.

*

All these interventions should be used in combination with other infection

control measures, including hand hygiene, cough etiquette, and personal

protective equipment such as face masks. Additional information on infection

control measures is available at

www.pandemicflu.gov

.

†

This intervention may be combined with the treatment of sick individuals using

antiviral medications and with vaccine campaigns, if supplies are available

§

Many sick individuals who are not critically ill may be managed safely at home

¶

The contribution made by contact with asymptomatically infected individuals

to disease transmission is unclear. Household members in homes with ill

persons may be at increased risk of contracting pandemic disease from an ill

household member. These household members may have asymptomatic illness

and may be able to shed influenza virus that promotes community disease

transmission. Therefore, household members of homes with sick individuals

would be advised to stay home.

**

To facilitate compliance and decrease risk of household transmission, this

intervention may be combined with provision of antiviral medications to

household contacts, depending on drug availability, feasibility of distribution,

and effectiveness; policy recommendations for antiviral prophylaxis are

addressed in a separate guidance document.

††

Consider short-term implementation of this measure—that is, less than 4

weeks.

§§

Plan for prolonged implementation of this measure—that is, 1 to 3 months;

actual duration may vary depending on transmission in the community as the

pandemic wave is expected to last 6-8 weeks