Ukrainian special forces operatives launched simultaneous attacks on four Russian strategic bomber bases and the home port of the Russian Northern Fleet early Sunday. The attack was reportedly a year-and-a-half in the making and involved a novel means of delivery and the first use of autonomous drone swarms.
This is what we know as of this writing
The targets were:
- Olenya Air Base in the Murmansk Region
- Belaya Air Base in the Irkutsk Region
- Ivanovo Air Base in the Ivanovo Region
- Dyagilevo Air Base in the Ryazan Region
- Severomorsk (Main Administrative Base of the Russian Northern Fleet) in the Murmansk Region
The airbases are the home to Russia's fleet of Tu-22, Tu-95M, and Tu-160 nuclear-capable strategic bombers as well as AS-50 battle management aircraft. They were located from the Siberian Far East to the Arctic Circle. The furthest target, Belaya Airbase in Irkutsk, is over 2700 miles from Ukraine.
Reports indicate that at least 41 aircraft were hit. The unofficial tally indicates 24 Tu-22, 8 Tu-95MS, and 5 Tu-16 were hit. MiG-31 fighters and Il-76 transports were also hit. To put this in context, open-source data says Russia's bomber inventory is about 58 Tu-22, 47 Tu-95MS, and 15 Tu-160. These planes are the ones used to launch most of the missiles fired at Ukrainian cities.
By any standard, this was a devastating attack. Nearly half of the Tu-22, a quarter of the Tu-95MS, and a third of the Tu-160 fleet, representing just over 30 percent of Russia's strategic bomber force, were damaged or destroyed in one attack. When you consider the operational readiness rate, Russia probably has less than 50 aircraft capable of flying...on the bright side, they have plenty of aircraft to cannibalize for parts. The Tu-22 and Tu-95MS production lines are closed, and the Tu-160 production is one, yes, one per year. For all intents and purposes, this represents a permanent decrease in the size of the Russian strategic bomber fleet.
How did this come to be? The special forces operated by Ukraine's intelligence directorate, the SBU, used semi-trucks hauling trailers that were drone launch pods.
This is allegedly from the attack on Belaya Airbase, Irkutsk. The drones launch one by one, and the truck is destroyed after the last launch.
This video is allegedly drone telemetry from the attack on Olenegorsk Airbase in Murmansk.
This was a fire-and-forget attack. There was no need for Ukrainian drone operators to remain on the scene to manage the attacks. An autonomously targeted drone swarm hit each target. SBU operatives placed the trucks, and the rest of the operation, from first launch to the self-destruct of the transport, appears to have been carried out without a man in the loop.
While the details of the attack come from Ukraine, Russian government sources have admitted to several drone attacks but have not given details on the damage.
The governor of Russia’s far-north Irkutsk region, Igor Ivanovich Kobzev, said drones launched from a truck attacked a military unit in the village of Sredny. In a Telegram post Sunday, he said it was the first such attack to target Siberian territory.
In Russia’s northwest Murmansk, which borders Finland, regional Gov. Andrey Chibis said enemy drones had attacked unspecified targets. He did not report any casualties and urged residents to remain calm.
The close-in impact of the attack will be apparent Monday when Ukrainian and Russian negotiators meet in Istanbul. I wouldn't expect a deal or even progress, but I would expect fireworks. I wouldn't be shocked to see the Russians refuse to show up or to storm out of the session.
However, the main impact of this extends beyond Ukraine and Russia.
In December 2024, the U.S. Coast Guard reported that dozens of drones had shadowed its cutters while at sea. New Jersey Representative Jeff Van Drew said "that 'very qualified' and 'reliable' sources believe the mystery drones flying over New Jersey are originating from an Iranian 'mother ship' parked off the U.S. East Coast." This, to me, reasonable assertion was immediately howled down.
Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh emphatically denied Drew’s remarks Wednesday.
“There is no Iranian ship off the coast of the United States, and there’s no so-called mothership launching drones towards the United States,” she said.
This same phenomenon has been recorded at other sensitive installations, see Drone Swarms Over Sensitive US Bases and Nuclear Facilities Is Met by Apathy and Indifference – RedState.
According to online reporting, the Russians were prepared for a night attack by large drones and got a daylight attack by quadcopters instead. China has access to some 43,000 container ships registered in either the People's Republic of China or Hong Kong (which is basically the same thing). Imagine a few hundred of them carrying containers modified for launching drones. I would submit that a similar attack by China on US Naval and Air Force bases throughout the world would render a crippling blow that would force us to either acknowledge a possible Chinese conquest of Taiwan as fait accompli or go nuclear.
President Trump has taken a useful first step with the inauguration of planning for the Golden Dome project; see Trump Unveils Golden Dome Project: A Great Game Changer for America's Future – RedState. Unless this project includes defenses of all US bases and civilian infrastructure from autonomous drone swarms, it could end up defending us from a threat that is unlikely to materialize, and ignore the obvious danger that is at hand.
